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NATO does not expect imminent Russian attack but sees troop buildup near alliance’s borders, official says

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte poses with NATO defense ministers and defense industry representatives during the NATO Defense Industry Forum at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, July 7, 2026. Photo: ANSA

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte poses with NATO defense ministers and defense industry representatives during the NATO Defense Industry Forum at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, July 7, 2026. Photo: ANSA

Russia is building up its military presence along the border with Finland, in the Far North, and in Kaliningrad, a senior NATO official said at a closed briefing attended by The Insider’s correspondent during the alliance’s ongoing summit in Ankara.

The official said Russia had reestablished the Leningrad and Moscow military districts and formed at least one new army corps and three new divisions. NATO believes the moves are linked to Moscow’s goal of increasing the size of the Russian armed forces to 1.8 million personnel.

At the same time, the alliance assesses that most Russian recruits are still being sent to the front in Ukraine to replace losses. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Russia is losing 30,000 to 35,000 troops killed and wounded each month.

NATO also says the pace of Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine has slowed dramatically since last year. The senior alliance official said Moscow is unlikely to achieve its stated goals within the timelines it has set.

“Putin continues to move the goalposts while simultaneously claiming that every kilometer gained is a major victory,” the official said.

Despite cyberattacks and sabotage operations in Europe, the official sees no signs that Russia intends to launch an imminent attack on NATO in the short term. Still, the official added that Putin and the Kremlin sometimes make “very bad decisions.”

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