Cartels and caudillos: Is America's Venezuelan venture a pretext, or a prelude to war?

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In August, under the pretext of fighting drug crime, the U.S. sent three destroyers, patrol anti-submarine Boeing P-8 aircraft, armored ships, and a nuclear submarine to Venezuela’s coast. The combined crew of these vessels numbers around 4,000.

On Sept. 2, U.S. forces destroyed a Venezuelan boat in international waters. Eleven people were on board. Donald Trump posted a video of the strike on his social media: “The strike occurred while the terrorists were at sea in international waters transporting illegal narcotics, heading to the United States. The strike resulted in 11 terrorists killed in action,” the American president wrote. According to him, the people on board were members of the Tren de Aragua group, “operating under the control of Nicolas Maduro.” The U.S. considers the group to be a terrorist organization, even if American authorities have provided no evidence to support the designation.

The Venezuelan investigative outlet El Pitazo reported on Sept. 4 that the boat had left the town of San Juan de Unare for the Caribbean Sea, heading toward Trinidad and Tobago. San Juan de Unare is located in Venezuela’s Sucre state and has been notorious for organized crime and drug smuggling over the past two decades. The outlet also noted that after the American strike, additional police and military forces were deployed to San Juan de Unare.

Washington has stated that the Sept. 2 strike is only the beginning. Under Trump’s orders, U.S. forces will take similar action against any vessel they believe is transporting drugs. Attacks on suspected boats in open waters have continued, and U.S. forces have sunk at least three vessels so far, killing no fewer than 17 people.

Look somewhere else for gangsters

“If you’re looking for a gangster, try somewhere else,” Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro told the U.S. authorities at his first press conference after American warships were deployed off Venezuela’s coast.

Maduro announced he was ready to resist US aggression and urged Venezuelans to join local self-defense units. These remarks, along with increasingly outspoken anti-American statements by Venezuelan cabinet ministers, are among the signs of the country’s growing militarization. Maduro has already deployed 25,000 troops to Venezuela’s borders and announced military exercises in the Caribbean in mid-September.

He also warned the Americans that he would mobilize millions of his fellow citizens if Washington took any steps that he deemed a threat to his power. Caracas insists that America’s anti-drug campaign is merely a cover for an attempt to overthrow Venezuela’s government.

At the same time, Maduro appears unwilling to give up on attempts to reach an understanding with the United States. For instance, he proposed that Washington cooperate with Caracas in capturing drug traffickers. Maduro is even known to have sent Trump a letter saying, “Mr. President, I hope we can work together to overcome the lies that have darkened our relationship.” There was apparently no public response to the gesture. However, according to some reports, Washington and Caracas remain in contact, including via the leaders of Middle Eastern countries.

A 50-million-dollar reward for the head of state

The precision missiles aboard U.S. warships could be used to target drug production sites, plantations, or cartel meeting points. But they could just as easily be turned against Nicolás Maduro himself, as some American media have suggested. The White House denies any such intentions. Nevertheless, the United States officially regards Maduro as one of the leaders of the global drug trade.

From the beginning of his first presidential term in 2017, Trump displayed open hostility toward Maduro. That set the Venezuelan dictator apart from other members of the so-called “axis of evil,” such as Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong Un, for whom the American leader expressed a degree of respect. The difference may lie in geography — Venezuela is far closer to the United States.

That proximity, past and present, gives Trump confidence in his claims that Venezuela’s authorities are deliberately flooding the U.S. with illegal migrants and narcotics. In addition, various theories suggest Trump’s real motive may be to gain control over Venezuela’s oil reserves — the largest in the world.

The United States has not recognized Nicolás Maduro’s government as legitimate in years, as Washington considers the results of the 2018 and 2024 presidential elections fraudulent. Back in 2020, during Trump’s first term, Maduro was placed on the U.S. federal wanted list on charges of drug trafficking and terrorism, and a reward of $15 million was offered for information leading to the Venezuelan dictator’s arrest.

At the same time, courts in New York, Washington, and Miami were handling cases against Venezuela’s top leadership. According to investigators, by that point Maduro had been engaged in criminal activity for at least twenty years. If convicted in the United States, he faces a life sentence.

In March 2020, the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a statement that read: “Nicolás Maduro Moros and 14 current and former Venezuelan officials charged with narco-terrorism, corruption, drug trafficking and other criminal charges… Maduro and the other defendants expressly intended to flood the United States with cocaine in order to undermine the health and wellbeing of our nation. Maduro very deliberately deployed cocaine as a weapon.”

During Joe Biden’s presidency, the bounty on Maduro’s head was raised to $25 million — the same amount once offered for information on Osama bin Laden. In October 2022, Caracas managed to exchange seven Americans imprisoned in Venezuela for the nephews of Maduro’s wife, Cilia Flores. The two men had been arrested in Haiti in 2015 with 800 kilograms of cocaine before being handed over to the United States. They served less than half of the 18-year sentence handed down by a New York court.

In 2024, Washington temporarily eased sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for Maduro’s pledge to allow an opposition candidate to take part in the presidential election and to allow international observers to monitor the process. As before, he failed to keep his word. Only 24 countries — including Russia, Belarus, China, Iran, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Cuba — recognized the Venezuelan dictator’s reelection.

In January 2025, Donald Trump returned to the White House, promising to curb illegal migration and end drug trafficking. Barely a week after his inauguration, Trump sent special envoy Richard Grenell to Caracas for talks with Maduro.

Grenell succeeded in securing the release of six Americans who had been held in Venezuelan prisons since the 2024 presidential election. Maduro described his talks with Trump’s envoy as “open and honest” and suggested a reset in bilateral relations — “a fresh start.” The media began speculating that Grenell’s visit to Caracas could partly legitimize Maduro’s regime.

But actually legitimizing Maduro remained out of the question — especially under the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the first Latino in U.S. history to hold the position and a politician with a personal stake in the region. Under Rubio, the charges first filed against Nicolás Maduro in 2020 were significantly toughened and shifted entirely from the political realm into the criminal one.

Venezuela’s election fraud, human rights abuses, and corruption have all become secondary areas of concern for the current administration in the White House. What matters now is the offense that resonates most with Trump’s voters: “Nicolás Maduro is the head of a drug cartel and a narco-terrorist who poses a threat to national security.”

On July 25, 2025, the United States designated the “Cartel of the Suns” as an international terrorist organization linked to Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang. Washington also labeled Sinaloa and Tren de Aragua as terrorist organizations. The bounty for Maduro, regarded as the cartel’s leader, was raised to $50 million — making him the most expensive fugitive in the history of the U.S. narcotics reward program.

The U.S. has also offered a $25 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Venezuela’s interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, and $15 million for defense minister Vladimir Padrino López.

Notably, the notice offering $50 million for help in capturing Maduro does not describe him as Venezuela’s president or dictator. It simply states that he is wanted on charges related to drugs, weapons, and terrorism. The email address provided for sending tips to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents is equally telling: [email protected].

What is the “Cartel of the Suns”

Cartel de los Soles — lit. “Cartel of the Suns” — is a vast criminal network that, according to U.S. investigators and prosecutors, links drug trafficking and terrorist organizations across Latin America and the Middle East. The cartel stands accused of producing and distributing tons of narcotics, as well as kidnapping, torture, and murder. It has been designated a terrorist organization by Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, Argentina, and the Dominican Republic, along with the United States.

According to an indictment from the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, Nicolás Maduro stands at the head of the organization and maintains ties not only with leaders of other major cartels — including Mexico’s notorious Sinaloa cartel — but also with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the leadership of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC).

Until it was disbanded in 2017, the FARC was the largest terrorist organization in the Western Hemisphere. Its fighters sought to overthrow the Colombian government and establish a Marxist regime aligned with Cuba and Venezuela.

The “Cartel of the Suns” first gained international recognition in the early 1990s, when the United States accused Venezuelan General Ramón Guillén Dávila of helping smuggle 22 tons of cocaine into America. From 1987 to 1991, Dávila headed the National Guard’s anti-drug unit in Venezuela and was a trusted CIA contact in the country. Similar charges were later brought against his successor, General Orlando Hernández Villegas.

The name “Cartel of the Suns” refers to the insignia of Venezuela’s generals. Unlike the stars typically used to denote rank, Venezuelan officers of the highest command wear suns on their epaulettes. The label was, of course, informal — used by the press to describe generals implicated or suspected of involvement with the drug trade.

From Chávez to Maduro

It is believed that Hugo Chávez — who held a senior position in the army before launching his political career — decided after becoming president to turn the criminal enterprises of his fellow generals to his own advantage, consolidating his influence within the military. This step, incidentally, is noted in the aforementioned New York court ruling.

As explained by researchers from Insight Crime, an organization studying organized crime in Latin America, narco-corruption became an additional mechanism of loyalty to the regime. With a steady illicit income, military officers had a personal stake in supporting Chávez.

Drugs were brought into Venezuela from neighboring Colombia via supporters of the FARC and the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional, ELN). Both had been fighting the Colombian government since the 1960s, controlling border areas and cocaine plantations.

The Venezuelans used military aircraft and other equipment to transport cocaine. The infrastructure of state-owned oil and gas giant PDVSA, including its fleet, also played a role.

In 2005, Caracas officially cut ties with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). Chávez accused the agency of “spying on the Venezuelan government.”

American investigators believe that after Hugo Chávez’s death in 2013, his close ally Nicolás Maduro inherited not only the country’s top office but also leadership of the transnational cartel.

U.S. informants

The main sources of U.S. intelligence on the “Cartel of the Suns” were former high-ranking officials from the Chávez and Maduro regimes who had detailed knowledge of the inner workings of the government. These people witnessed — or took part in — Caracas’s dealings with Colombian guerrillas and other players in the international drug trafficking network. In the United States, they either enjoy protected witness status or are serving long prison sentences.

Venezuelan Navy Captain Leamsy Salazar spent ten years as the head of Hugo Chávez’s security detail and served as his personal assistant. After Chávez’s death in 2013, Salazar became the head of security for Diosdado Cabello, who at the time chaired Venezuela’s National Assembly and now serves as interior minister. Cabello is considered the country’s second most powerful figure after Maduro.

In December 2014, Salazar got married and asked the authorities for permission to spend his honeymoon abroad. Together with his wife, he spent several weeks in Madrid before flying to Washington, accompanied by DEA agents. In the United States, Salazar entered the witness protection program and testified against Cabello, whom he described as the head of the “Cartel of the Suns.”

He also said that Hugo Chávez personally met with representatives of the FARC and discussed cocaine smuggling with them. In the mid-2000s, Washington and Bogotá jointly disrupted the guerrillas’ established drug trafficking routes. Chávez then opened Venezuela’s border to them, and the smuggling route to the United States shifted to go through Haiti and Honduras. According to Salazar, Cuba also helped facilitate the shipments.

In 2020, General Clíver Alcalá, once close to Chávez but part of the opposition after 2013, surrendered to the United States. In 2019, he had plotted a military coup against Nicolás Maduro. U.S. authorities had charged Alcalá with “narco-terrorism” and identified him as one of the “Suns.” The general agreed to cooperate with investigators and was ultimately sentenced in April 2024 to 21 years in prison for supplying weapons to the FARC (though not for drug trafficking).

Meanwhile, developments unfolded around Major General Hugo Carvajal, known by his call sign “El Pollo” (“The Chicken”). Under Chávez, Carvajal headed Venezuela’s Military Counterintelligence Directorate, and after Maduro came to power, he became a member of the National Assembly. In 2017, he began criticizing the regime and fled the country. Carvajal was arrested in Spain in 2019 but managed to escape. He was recaptured in 2021. Both Washington and Caracas requested his extradition — the latter charging him with treason. Madrid ultimately sent Carvajal to the United States.

The major general agreed to cooperate with U.S. investigators. In June 2025, the former Venezuelan military intelligence chief was found guilty of “narco-terrorism” and of supplying weapons to the FARC. Carvajal’s sentencing is scheduled for Oct. 29 in New York. He faces life imprisonment.

Experts believe that information on the ties between the “Suns” and Mexican organized crime may have been passed to U.S. investigators by Ovidio Guzmán — the son longtime Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. The younger Guzmán, also known as “The Mouse,” was extradited from Mexico to the United States in 2023.

An atypical cartel

Analyzing the charges brought by the United States against Maduro, experts at Insight Crime note that the “Cartel of the Suns” functions more as a corruption network than an organized criminal organization. The outlet also disputes the allegation that Caracas uses cocaine as a weapon: “The destination of the shipments is determined by economic, not ideological, considerations. Deliveries go both to the United States and to European countries that are less hostile toward Venezuela.”

The Venezuelan branch of the international watchdog Transparency International believes that the cartel does not have a single leader controlling all of its operations. In a recent interview with the Spanish-language service of Deutsche Welle, Mercedes De Freitas, executive director of the exiled Transparencia Venezuela, explained: “This is not a typical cartel — it is a criminal structure embedded in the Venezuelan state, an informal corruption network that does not answer to a single leader.”

Insight Crime experts consider references to Maduro as the head of the cartel to be an oversimplification of reality. According to them, the dictator is likely guilty of turning a blind eye to his subordinates’ enrichment from drug trafficking in exchange for their loyalty — not of personally managing the flow of cocaine and marijuana.

Another non-governmental research organization, the International Crisis Group (ICG), goes even further, arguing that no “Cartel of the Suns” has ever existed. “There is no such thing, so Maduro can hardly be its boss,” said ICG analyst Phil Gunson.

Cocaine bypasses Venezuela

The latest United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime report states that, worldwide, 316 million people aged 15 to 65 use drugs — about 6% of the world’s population. Cocaine users are estimated at 25 million. Colombia remains the main producer of the drug, while the primary markets are the United States and Europe.

UN experts do not consider Venezuela to be a key hub for cocaine trafficking in general or its smuggling to the United States in particular. Eighty-seven percent of drugs reach the U.S. via the Pacific Ocean, to which Venezuela has no access. Only 5% of such shipments pass through Venezuelan territory.

“They say Venezuela is not involved in drug trafficking because that’s what the UN thinks. I don’t care what the UN says! The UN doesn’t even know what it’s saying! There is no doubt that Maduro is a drug trafficker,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio commented on the report.

Will there be war?

The three modern missile cruisers and four thousand U.S. marines sent to the shores of Venezuela constitute a formidable force, but they are not sufficient for a full-scale war on foreign territory.

No expert in the United States seriously expects a scenario in which the U.S. launches an invasion of Venezuela. As Frank Mora, a former senior Pentagon official specializing in Latin America, calculated, “To take over a country like Venezuela and maintain order after an invasion, you would need between 200,000 and 250,000 troops.” With ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, the U.S. is unlikely to commit such forces.

Maduro, for his part, can count on his regular army of over 100,000 troops, as well as irregular forces that include remnants of the disbanded FARC. These fighters are highly trained for guerrilla warfare in the South American jungle.

Short of full-scale war, drone strikes and isolated operations inside Venezuela may yet be in the offing. “Something very targeted, short-lived, and with a very specific objective — for example, seizing an airbase or a single person,” explains military analyst and retired U.S. Army colonel Manuel Supervielle (who agrees with Mora that the contingent of U.S. ships in the Caribbean is not big enough to support a large-scale ground operation).

Supervielle’s position was corroborated by a Sept. 26 NBC News report, which cited anonymous sources in the U.S. administration who said that the military is developing plans for drone strikes against “drug-trafficking targets” inside Venezuela. These strikes could be carried out within the coming weeks. NBC’s sources stressed that Donald Trump has not yet approved the plan.

At the same time, CNN, also citing sources in the administration, reported that Trump is prepared to carry out missile strikes against sites that intelligence says are used by the drug mafia. According to sources, in the president’s view these strikes should send a signal to people in Maduro’s circle: it’s time to seriously consider removing the usurper president.