Kremlin aide’s proposal to replace Russian military with National Guard in Donbas is a distinction without a difference, analyst explains

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said in an interview with the Russian newspaper Kommersant that he does not rule out the possibility of withdrawing Russian troops from Donbas in eastern Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement. Ushakov said the territory could instead be controlled by the National Guard (Rosgvardia) and Russian police. However, as Georgy Chizhov, the head of the Kyiv-based Reform Assistance Center, told The Insider, such a proposal would not actually change the situation on the ground, as Russia would still retain a monopoly on the use of force in the region:

“For foreigners who haven’t yet understood the situation, it may sound novel that Russia has agreed to withdraw its troops from the Donetsk Region. But in reality that is merely a play on words, because Rosgvardia is the same armed force, it just does not report to the Defense Ministry.

These are the same people who have already operated in Ukraine. They were, for example, near Kyiv — all those OMON units, the well-known Chechen battalions. So they are just as much participants in Russia’s aggressive war, and the fact that they belong to a different agency changes nothing.

Russia continues to treat the Donetsk Region as its own territory. It annexed it and claims only Russia has rights to it. So it agrees to remove formations controlled by the Defense Ministry. Of course, this cannot be taken seriously. It is like Ukraine saying: fine, we can also withdraw the AFU and leave only the National Guard. Would Russia agree to that?

No matter what they call them, even if they leave costumed Cossacks there, if they retain weapons and a monopoly on force, this is nothing like what Ukraine is proposing.”

Ushakov’s much-discussed comments came during a conversation with Kommersant special correspondent Andrei Kolesnikov in which the foreign policy aide stressed that Moscow still insists the Donbas is “Russian territory.” “It will be under the control of our [Russian] administrations,” in the event of any foreseeable peace agreement to end the war, he explained.

“As for what happens afterward — in my view, that can be discussed,” he said. “It is entirely possible that there will be no troops there, neither Russian nor Ukrainian. Yes, but there will be the National Guard, there will be our police, there will be everything needed to maintain order and organize life.”

Russian media have repeatedly reported (1, 2, 3) on the participation of the Russian National Guard in combat operations in Ukraine. In the first days of the invasion, OMON and SOBR personnel were also seen near Kyiv. In 2023, following the abortive uprising of the late Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, legislation passed by the State Duma authorized the National Guard to field heavy weapons such as long-range artillery and tanks.

Ushakov’s comments came in response to remarks made a day earlier by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said the U.S. had proposed creating a zone in the Donbas that would be free of both Russian and Ukrainian armed forces. Zelensky said Washington had proposed withdrawing both sides’ troops from the territory, but that “they don’t know who would administer it.” Territorial issues, he said, “will be decided by the people of Ukraine” through elections or a referendum.