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Russia’s federal budget deficit for the first two months of 2026 amounted to 3.449 trillion rubles — 1.032 trillion more than in the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance. This is an absolute record for the first two months of any year. In 2025, the figure was 2.416 trillion rubles, and in 2024 it amounted to only 1.032 trillion. Thus, in January–February the treasury has already exhausted 91% of the planned deficit for the entire 2026 fiscal year (3.786 trillion rubles).
The Ministry of Finance has notified ministries and agencies of the need to cut spending by 10% to prevent the deficit from widening. The ministry asserts that the cuts will not affect social obligations, military spending, or support for soldiers’ families. Instead, the reductions will primarily target infrastructure and construction projects — roads, bridges, and new facilities.
As economist Ruben Enikolopov noted in comments to The Insider, the sharp decline in Russia’s budget revenues may turn out to be a temporary phenomenon:
“The main problem was the drop in oil prices, but now they are on the rise. If they stabilize at current levels, this will provide significant support for the budget — thus eliminating the need for dramatic spending cuts.
The question is how sustainable the current spike is. Given the unpredictable nature of the conflict in Iran, high oil prices may not last long. A temporary surge will help the budget, but only slightly. However, if prices stabilize at a high level, that’s a different story. For now, the near term will be unpleasant for everyone connected to the budget sector or receiving government services — which is most Russians.”